Caracas, January 19, 2011
24 years of inflation and other macroeconomic indicators.
This paper corresponds to the continuation of similar Aporrea published by the author on previous occasions (in April 2007 and April 2010), and where as now, try in a bit contrived and accompanied by graphics that illustrate explanations, dismantle the arguments opponents from a documented vision by official statistics published by the Central Bank of Venezuela that are available to any citizen in the digital page http://www.bcv.org.ve
have recently been expressed in media statements and writings about the ineffective performance by the Revolutionary Government Inflation topic, shocking on the figures achieved during these 12 years, and the high emphasis on this phenomenon occurs in our country's economy by positioning ourselves as the continent's highest inflation, which is not less true, but just as cynically circumvented the causes of this situation is caused by sections under their control throughout the apparatus producer and distributor of commercial consumer products (food, medicine, clothing, footwear, and other services) to generate artificial shortages and pushing a skyrocketing prices have a direct impact on inflation so high that still exist, despite the efforts and actions have been implemented to counter its impact on the neediest people.
But the way I present indicators belie comparisons for equal periods, the parent has sought to impose and pointing accusing the government led by our Commander in Chief, so I invite all those interested in the topic provide its analysis and supplement my modest opinion that only seek to clear the scene of the macro economic figures to readers hungry for information. I leave for a better interpretation developed here as follows:
12 years of revolutionary government in graphics (January 1999-December 2010) vs. Previous 12 years (January 1987-December 1998). INFLATION
vs 1987/1998. 1999/2010
This chart shows the behavior of inflation in the last 24 years, which shows that in the twelve years prior to the start of the Administration of President Chávez, the lowest rate observed was 29.9% (1998) just the last year of Caldera II, and the highest was 103.2% (1996) also for the government and his new Minister Caldera of Cordiplan Teodoro Petkoff, but in the last three years of joint management of Carlos Andrés Pérez, Ramón J. Velasquez, there was 45.9% (1993) and in 1989 reached a figure close to 81% inflation, thanks to policies recommended by the IMF shock seconded by CAP and Miguel Rodriguez (Cordiplan).
twelve years in the Revolutionary Management, the lowest inflation recorded in 2001 prior to the tragic coup of April 2002, when it stood at just 12%, in my opinion, one reason he got out of the boxes to the fascist opposition that could not afford the success of macroeconomic policies that predicted a defeat for inflation and marked a trend toward a final digit to its control, consequently resulting in high rates further to 31.2% (2002), just the year that the mob attacked with all the iron against the country and the legitimate Government in exercise, getting involved in the coup and the subsequent oil sabotage, and a maximum of 31.9% (2008), the product of Opposing unfair practices of shortages, yet this high inflation rate reached in 2008, resembles the lowest of the 12 years preceding the start of the process.
2. CUMULATIVE INFLATION PERIOD vs. 1987/1998. 1999/2010
The truth is that words are unnecessary to this overwhelming reality, if this is not a reflection of the successful implementation of Macroeconomic Policies in the Management Chavez, thanks to its excellent work, then do not define, but for not very long story short, in the twelve years prior to the arrival of President Chavez the cumulative inflation for the period amounted to nothing less than 11408.31% thanks to the recommendations of multilateral agencies, including IMF, which forced the governments of the time to implement neoliberal policies with the disastrous consequences of the same, more poverty , more inflation, more dead (remember that in 1989 did the Caracazo).
The other side of the coin shows in the 1999/2010 period, when once freed from the lethal prescriptions of the IMF, President Chavez and his team decided to implement macroeconomic policies to the country, to the point that even with the strikes, coups, sabotage, guarimbas, and other concoction applied by the opposition coup, the cumulative inflation rate Chávez Management, reaches 961.02%, which is not something to jump for joy, and even if it is considered high, is 12 times less and stay in diapers shown by the governments of the 4th. Republic between the years 1987/1998.
definitely those are the figures in the opposition do not like and which we must insist on permanently removing any argument to the contrary that they indicate on the subject.
3. VARIACIÓNPRODUCTO gross domestic product (GDP) since 1997
Bs * Provisional figures
For educational purposes, "Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Value of final goods and services produced within a country during a certain period. "(From page www.bcv.org.ve). Here
figures shown start from 1997, which is the information available on the website of the BCV, and shows the values \u200b\u200bof 1997 (ie, the figures are adjusted to their values \u200b\u200bas if they were all Bs 1997 for comparative purposes ), and show the trend growth of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to the observed decline in 2002 due to the grace coup, then a strong recovery until March 2008 This shows a real improvement in the Venezuelan economy for 5 consecutive years, which was impacted negatively in the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 as a result of the global financial debacle suffered crash product in the U.S., Europe and the rest of the world Following the financial bubble burst (greater brand bank fraud in my opinion) originated in the U.S. and affecting the global economy resulting in a severe recession from which no escape, even if their effects were lower in our country to the world . Fortunately, this situation has been controlled by the government team and hopes to restart economic growth will be present in the year 2011 with a value close to +2% of GDP in the period.
4. 1993/2010 INTERNATIONAL RESERVES TOTAL U.S. $ Million
shows figures from 1993, available on the website of the BCV, and as in the previous figures, the year 2002 shows atypical (lower level of stocks of this Government, matched to the received in 1998) the rising trend that had been observed. The figures for December 2010 (U.S. $ 30,332), exceed 2.04 times the amount of international reserves at U.S. $ December 1998 (U.S. $ 14,849).
5. TYPE REFERENCE EXCHANGE 1997 / 2010
vs Bs. U.S. $.
This chart shows us that in the early years of Chávez Management, the exchange rate remained low with variations until 2001, however the product events of 2002, there was a strong attack against our sign exchange, which brought a response from the Exchange Control Government that continues to this day, which allowed for the past 60 months, the official exchange rate remained unchanged at 2150.00 Bs (Bs 2.15 / U.S. $), despite frequent manipulations that run on the black market dominated by financial players coup with the intention of causing a devaluation in order to thus obtain large ill-gotten gains at the expense of Venezuela, which has had a tough financial position and monetary authorities and the National Executive. However
early 2010, the national executive was forced to implement a new dual exchange rate (VEB 2.60 per U.S. $ for import of essential goods and Bs.4 identified, 30/Us $ for Other imports), in order to counter foreign exchange market distortions caused by a parallel market that served as a benchmark for setting prices consumidor de los artículos importados, aún cuando los importadores en un alto porcentaje recibían divisas de CADIVI al cambio de Bs. 2,15/Us$).
De la misma manera, al inicio del año 2011 el Ejecutivo Nacional decidió unificar la tasa de cambio a Bs. 4,30/Us$ con la intención de simplificar el mercado cambiario y darle más fluidez.
6. INDICE DE REMUNERACIONES GENERAL (PÚBLICO Y PRIVADO)
FUENTE: www.bcv.org.ve Base 1997
Este gráfico nos muestra a valores de 1997, el Índice de Remuneraciones General (Sector Público y Privado en conjunto), y refleja el fortalecimiento impuesto por las decisions of the Cabinet led by President Chávez, on wages, which is expressed as a percentage change of +803.70% when comparing 2010 vs values. 1998, encouraging the purchasing power of workers with the implementation of annual salary adjustments and payments for other additional benefits as Food ejemplp Bonus. Justo Bustamante Ch
justobustamante@hotmail.com
Twitter: @ justobustamante
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